AIBC Research 2026

Introduction China's economy this June presents two divergent narratives simultaneously. On one hand, demand-side weaknesses have persisted, most visibly in household consumption and the prolonged contraction in property and real estate investments. Data released on June 16th showed that retail sales fell in May for the first time since December 2022, dropping 0.6% year-on-year, while urban fixed-asset investment contracted 4.1% in the January-to-May period, steepening sharply from the 1.6%...

Macro (Rates and FX) - March The US-Iran war has already begun to ripple through Asian foreign exchange (FX) markets, where currencies trade against one another, and rates markets, which determine government bond yields and interest-rate expectations. The shock is being transmitted mainly through higher oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and a broader global risk-off move. Since the conflict has escalated, oil prices have surged as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have intensified. The...